Many founders chase vanity metrics that impress investors but fail to build sustainable businesses.

As VCs, identifying the right signals that predict future success is one of our hardest challenges. The reality is that some of the most powerful indicators of a startup’s potential aren’t the metrics VCs traditionally obsess over.

Hidden signals in user behavior and unexpected market response often reveal true momentum much better than existing revenue, or the lack of it. By looking beyond conventional metrics, investors can position themselves to recognize tomorrow’s breakout companies before others recognize their potential.

Organic Word-of-Mouth Referrals

There is something to be said about genuine user advocacy. For example, when 25%+ of new customers arrive through unpaid referrals, a company has likely created something people genuinely value.

In such instances, the ratio of organic to paid acquisition predicts long-term sustainability better than existing total customer count. Also, the velocity of referrals matters more than volume. As investors, look for referral cycles that compress over time from weeks to days.

Companies that have built systems to measure these referral patterns demonstrate deep understanding both product value and growth.

The Emergence of Power Users

The appearance of users exceeding a company’s product usage expectations can indicate they’ve built something essential for that user base. You can typically identify these users by monitoring usage depth metrics like daily active minutes/product features used and segmenting for the top 5% of users.

The behavior for this user segment can often be a good predictor for which use cases will help you increase product adoption in your mainstream audience, and identifying which features drive more engagement and retention.

Startups that methodically analyze their power users tend to make product decisions that strengthen core value instead of diluting focus with unnecessary features. This emphasis often creates more defensible market positions—exactly what we look for in potential category leaders.

User-Driven Use Cases

Another good signal is when users start utilizing a product in ways it was never intended as it could represent untapped market potential.

Paying attention to creative implementations from users is important as a startup is looking at expansion opportunities the competition may not be aware of yet.

The most successful founders in our portfolio leverage these organic insights to guide their roadmap and positioning, often creating entirely new categories in the process.

Unusually High Usage Frequency

When early adopters start using a company’s product significantly more often than industry averages, they’ve likely struck gold.

Total user count is not completely descriptive of traction. A much stronger indicator is focused on extreme engagement patterns. In other words, intensity matters more than scale.

A startup with 50 users who access their product 15+ times daily (~22,500 touch points) is completely different from a startup with 10,000 users who access the product once a month.

This intensive usage shows the product has become embedded in daily workflows rather than being merely “nice to have.” Such integration typically leads to higher retention and willingness to pay—metrics that directly impact long-term value.

Conclusion

In early-stage investing, looking beyond conventional metrics to understand user behavior reveals the startups positioned for exceptional growth. Organic referrals, power user emergence, creative use cases, and extraordinary usage frequency can provide stronger signals of future success than traditional metrics.

These indicators matter because they can’t be manufactured or manipulated—they represent genuine product value and market fit.

For investors navigating the early-stage landscape, developing an instinct for these powerful indicators can provide a significant edge. In our experience, the companies that demonstrate these signals consistently outperform their peers, even when their conventional metrics might not initially stand out.

Join our training sessions starting March 21st to learn how to identify and assess high-potential startup performance.